As we detail below, our thesis on Janus Henderson was playing out well when it was taken out by private capital. Since initiating the position in November of 2025, our position in JHG has risen 17.85% vs. the Core bench, the Russell 1000 Core ETF (IWB) falling -5.19%. Despite our frustration with the early takeout of JHG, we believe our new position in Morgan Stanley (MS) offers significant upside potential with possibly less downside than some other financials
JANUS HENDERSON GROUP (JHG): SELL
QUICK NOTES:
- We established our long position in November 2025 based on JHG’s successful turnaround under CEO
Dibadj — six consecutive quarters of positive net inflows, eight straight quarters of U.S. intermediary
strength, and positive organic revenue growth.
- A Trian Fund Management/General Catalyst consortium agreed to acquire JHG for $52.00/share in cash,
representing a 25% premium to the unaffected price but capping the long-term compounding upside we
were underwriting.
- Victory Capital’s competing bid was withdrawn after the Special Committee flagged unacceptable closing
risks and client attrition concerns, leaving the $52.00 all-cash offer as the final exit.
- With Trian controlling 20.7% of shares, the deal fully financed, and the stock trading at essentially the deal
price, the merger arbitrage spread is negligible — there is no incremental return to waiting.
SUMMARY:
We are closing our JHG position following the firm’s agreement to be acquired by a Trian/General Catalyst consortium at $52.00 per share in cash, a deal now virtually certain to close by mid-2026 after Victory Capital withdrew its competing bid. While our original thesis — a turnaround asset manager with accelerating inflows, diversifying revenues, and an undervalued franchise — played out with a faster, but lower, payoff than we expected. The takeout price at ~10.2x EV/LTM EBITDA caps public shareholders’ participation in all future upside. With the stock trading at the deal price and negligible arbitrage remaining, we are selling today to reallocate capital.
L2 Off-cycle trade: taking profits on JHG and initiating a buy position in MS – April Q1 2026
Table of contents
When
April 1, 2026
Who
Matthew Malgari
Dr. Sanjeev Bhojraj
Nathan Przybylo
As we detail below, our thesis on Janus Henderson was playing out well when it was taken out by private capital. Since initiating the position in November of 2025, our position in JHG has risen 17.85% vs. the Core bench, the Russell 1000 Core ETF (IWB) falling -5.19%. Despite our frustration with the early takeout of JHG, we believe our new position in Morgan Stanley (MS) offers significant upside potential with possibly less downside than some other financials
JANUS HENDERSON GROUP (JHG): SELL
QUICK NOTES:
Dibadj — six consecutive quarters of positive net inflows, eight straight quarters of U.S. intermediary
strength, and positive organic revenue growth.
representing a 25% premium to the unaffected price but capping the long-term compounding upside we
were underwriting.
risks and client attrition concerns, leaving the $52.00 all-cash offer as the final exit.
price, the merger arbitrage spread is negligible — there is no incremental return to waiting.
SUMMARY:
We are closing our JHG position following the firm’s agreement to be acquired by a Trian/General Catalyst consortium at $52.00 per share in cash, a deal now virtually certain to close by mid-2026 after Victory Capital withdrew its competing bid. While our original thesis — a turnaround asset manager with accelerating inflows, diversifying revenues, and an undervalued franchise — played out with a faster, but lower, payoff than we expected. The takeout price at ~10.2x EV/LTM EBITDA caps public shareholders’ participation in all future upside. With the stock trading at the deal price and negligible arbitrage remaining, we are selling today to reallocate capital.